Trump’s $72B War Sparked a Gas Crisis

We were gone for ten weeks and Trump started a war, the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, the government had its longest shutdown in history, two cabinet secretaries got pushed out over Epstein, and Republicans quietly added $70 billion more for ICE to a reconciliation bill nobody could stop. Season 3 of Vibes Only is here and Brian Derrick (Political Strategist and Founder of @oath.vote) and Glennis Meagher (Political and New Media Strategist and Co-founder of @generatorcollective) have a lot to catch you up on.

In the Season 3 premiere, Brian and Glennis break down Trump's war with Iran, the $72 billion the U.S. has burned in 60 days, the 3,400 civilians killed, the 14 American troops dead, and why this is the first Middle East war in our lifetime that's actually a voting issue (it has a lot to do with the price of gas). Then they get into how Democrats got played on the ICE reconciliation bill — Schumer specifically — and the $1 million Oath has now raised for the ICE Accountability Fund to prosecute officers and back the people fighting on the ground.

The bigger conversation is Louisiana v. Callais. Brian walks through what the 6-3 ruling actually does to Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which Southern states are about to gerrymander Black voters out of Congress, and why Oath has always built its plan around flipping 12 House seats, not 3. Plus the Democratic counter-strike taking shape across ten states, why Brian is more fired up than worried, and the early primary signals out of Ohio and Indiana (Sherrod Brown is back, Janet Mills dropped out, and Trump just spent $15 million in Indiana on pure revenge).

Also: Glennis brings receipts on Anna Nicole Smith, Brian compares the Trump assassination plot to a concept of a plan, and they make an official on-air challenge to Keith Edwards to come debate gerrymandering. The midterms are six months out. Buckle up.

New episodes of Vibes Only drop every week. If you like the show, the single biggest thing you can do is leave a rating and a review… it's free, it takes ten seconds, and it's how we get in front of more people who need a politics podcast that isn't going to make them want to move to the woods.

Vibes Only is a weekly political podcast hosted by Brian Derrick (Political Strategist and Founder of Oath) and Glennis Meagher (Political and New Media Strategist and Co-founder of Generator Collective), two political operatives turned creators breaking down the news of the week for you in terms of politics, elections, and culture. Consider us your weekly pause from doomscrolling and consultant-speak, just some solid vibes (and receipts) every Thursday morning.

Transcript

00:00:00:05 - 00:00:01:06
BRIAN
I'm Brian Derek.

00:00:01:08 - 00:00:02:08
GLENNIS
And I'm Glennis Meagher.

00:00:02:08 - 00:00:05:01
BRIAN
And welcome back to season three of Vibes Only.

00:00:05:03 - 00:00:11:10
GLENNIS
We're back baby. I kept thinking this morning on my bus ride over trims. Bah, baby.

00:00:11:12 - 00:00:12:03
BRIAN
Why?

00:00:12:06 - 00:00:21:16
GLENNIS
Because that's like an iconic. Do you know what I'm talking about? No. Okay, this is where our age gap really shows. Anna Nicole Smith. She got put.

00:00:21:16 - 00:00:22:13
BRIAN
On this guy.

00:00:22:15 - 00:00:35:12
GLENNIS
Yes, me. She rest in peace. But she had these diet pills called Trim Spa. And they were all over TV of these ads, and they were like, iconic. And she was like, trim spa, baby. I'm back. I'm gonna have to.

00:00:35:13 - 00:00:57:21
BRIAN
See some of that. Well, we are also back from the dead. It is officially vibes only season race, see, and we are thrilled to be back. I owe our listeners a sincere apology because the hiatus was planned, but not at the time that it took place.

00:00:57:25 - 00:01:05:13
GLENNIS
Yeah, I think I think you know, Millie also owes you a sincere apology. You guys talking Argentina? Yeah. Sans equipment.

00:01:05:21 - 00:01:28:16
BRIAN
I did, and so, yeah, some travel things got in the way of us finishing season two the way that we wanted to, and we needed a break to sort of reset ahead of what is going to be a sprint through November for primary election season and then general election season. And we wanted to be super focused. Yeah. And now we feel ready to go.

00:01:28:16 - 00:01:30:24
GLENNIS
And we're really in midterm season.

00:01:30:24 - 00:01:31:11
BRIAN
Yeah.

00:01:31:14 - 00:01:33:12
GLENNIS
How do you feel?

00:01:33:14 - 00:01:46:28
BRIAN
I mean we're rocking and rolling in terms of election results. Every single one is a banger. We are overperforming. The winds are our backs. I feel the wind in my hair.

00:01:46:28 - 00:01:53:15
GLENNIS
Like you're in Nicole Smith in the convertible. Going over the fridge saying shrimp slaw, baby. I'm back.

00:01:53:18 - 00:01:57:18
BRIAN
Harriet. Yeah, so I'm feeling great about that. Obviously, the world's on fire.

00:01:57:20 - 00:02:13:00
GLENNIS
Yeah, I feel like we should. I feel like it would be helpful. Just for context, even I was thinking all of the things that have happened since we stopped recording. It's almost difficult to believe so much can happen in two and a half months.

00:02:13:02 - 00:02:27:15
BRIAN
Yet here we are. First, we're going to get you caught up on everything that happened while you were out. And then we're going to really anchor in what is the rest of the year look like. And what are we going to be talking about? For example, season three.

00:02:27:17 - 00:02:28:15
GLENNIS
Yeah okay. That works.

00:02:28:19 - 00:02:37:09
BRIAN
Let's get into it. We're back.

00:02:37:12 - 00:03:05:03
GLENNIS
So I was thinking about all the things that have happened since we stopped recording, which is so crazy. But then also not because America is in crisis, but we'll talk about later. Also the war in Iraq and the unconstitutional, unsanctioned. Really no reason. War in Iran, additional political violence. We've seen DHS yeah, shut down the.

00:03:05:03 - 00:03:23:10
BRIAN
Longest government shutdown in history. Again, we've also had a bunch of news about the economy and battles going on with Jay Powell, the fed chair investigations. They're cash Patel and that crew. I feel like has has been making a lot of news.

00:03:23:12 - 00:03:37:16
GLENNIS
Yes. We didn't record for like two and a half months and a lot has transpired. But now I feel we're more equipped to talk about moving forward for sure, because the midterms are on the horizon 100%.

00:03:37:21 - 00:04:03:10
BRIAN
Let's talk about Iran. Yeah, let's like go there first because it's definitely the the defining thing of the first part of the year and could end up being the defining story of the entire election cycle, which is slightly unusual because America has actually been at war in the Middle East for almost our entire lifetime, and it usually isn't a voting issue, but this time feels really different.

00:04:03:11 - 00:04:07:10
GLENNIS
Well, yeah. And let's be clear Trump ran on no new wars, right?

00:04:07:11 - 00:04:30:04
BRIAN
I think that there's two reasons. One, you're exactly correct. It's so diametrically in opposition to what he said he was going to do. It's potentially the clearest example. There's a lot more that the facts sort of depend on who you listen to or who you believe. Yeah, I would say things like drain the swamp, he's really filled the swamp and there's more corruption than ever.

00:04:30:04 - 00:04:55:16
BRIAN
And all of those kinds of things. But like someone in MAGA world might fight with you on that. There's no dispute. There's no dispute that Trump ran on, no forever wars, no new wars, and then picked a fight. A war, started a war without any sort of clear justification for doing so. And it has really blown a hole in MAGA.

00:04:55:18 - 00:04:57:14
BRIAN
Yeah. Cohen MAGA coalition.

00:04:57:16 - 00:05:27:01
GLENNIS
It also, I mean, just double down on that point of no clear reason why. Lest we forget, the bunker busting bombs from half a year ago that we were told wiped out Iran's nuclear capabilities. Cut to the horrific, horrific killing of civilians in Iran by the Iranian National Guard that the Trump administration as recently as two days ago, with Rubio's press conference saying, the reason why we're here is for the human right.

00:05:27:01 - 00:05:52:00
GLENNIS
And it's like, how rich is that? You're saying this while ISIS killing American citizens, right? To now we're finding out that Iran is making money off of this war and we're enriching. We're enriching the Iranian National Guard. I've also read that a key I would say the Trump administration is calling a win of this war is because now Trump has a direct line to the Iranian National Guard.

00:05:52:03 - 00:06:00:11
GLENNIS
And what is he doing on behalf of U.S. oil companies negotiating with the Iranian National Guard to allow U.S. oil companies to operate in Iran?

00:06:00:13 - 00:06:24:17
BRIAN
Well, that is the second reason that this war feels like an actual voting issue for people, because the price of gas in the US has gone up. I think we're pushing almost $1.50 or $2 on average. Nationally, it is the largest spike and quickest spike in gas prices that we've seen in our lifetime. Yeah, I think since the 70s.

00:06:24:18 - 00:06:25:08
GLENNIS
Right. Because there was.

00:06:25:10 - 00:06:47:14
BRIAN
There was a crisis then. Yeah. People feel it, right? It's we talk about this every election season when affordability October rolls around, we're like, check the gas prices, check the polls. Like, like that is what tells you the mood of the country because they're advertised along every highway. Everyone is stopping on a weekly basis to fill up their tank.

00:06:47:21 - 00:07:07:24
BRIAN
And it really meaningfully impacts what people can do, how they live and how they feel about the economy. And we're seeing that every single day with price going up $0.10 a night. It feels like every morning I wake up and there's a headline of like, oh, overnight this Trump, and now you're paying 10 to $0.10 more in gas.

00:07:08:01 - 00:07:39:27
BRIAN
And gas prices went up during the pandemic right there, like during the post pandemic inflation spree. But it was a global clusterfuck, right? And we do. Of course, Republicans blame Biden and still do. But I think that average voters saw a lot of gray. And it was it was a little more ambiguous. Whether that was a fair justification or to place blame, no one is questioning this now.

00:07:39:27 - 00:07:40:08
BRIAN
It is.

00:07:40:09 - 00:07:41:24
GLENNIS
Very cause and effect.

00:07:41:28 - 00:07:57:16
BRIAN
Very cause and effect. Trump started a war. It's costing you thousands of dollars a year in extra, just in extra gas. Right. And as we know, gas, the cost of gas, the cost of oil affects everything. Yeah, because of transportation, etc..

00:07:57:22 - 00:08:14:02
GLENNIS
And we've talked about this like ad nauseum that Trump likes to create problems that he then solves for. And we're seeing that with the Strait of Hormuz. Is his operation U.S. freedom or he's like the US Navy is going to escort these ships through the Strait of Hormuz. You caused the problem, bro.

00:08:14:02 - 00:08:39:14
BRIAN
Right. We talk about the Trump playbook a lot. The cause, a problem, blame somebody else for it. I do the thing that you did and claim that you did something that you solved a problem. Yeah. I think that this has broken that cycle in a way because he can't get out, right? He literally cannot. He was told by a bunch of advisors.

00:08:39:20 - 00:09:00:01
BRIAN
And we know that I think that Trump is much less in control of his administration than the media would have you believe, regardless of who you think started it. Trump was told, we can do this in two weeks. We're going to bomb the shit out of their military targets, and then we're going to be done, and you're going to be the hero.

00:09:00:03 - 00:09:22:10
BRIAN
That's that's probably the amount of detail that he was told. And now he's stuck because they can't leave because they need the Strait of Hormuz to be open. I think that this breaks the mold of Trump's playbook because he is now stuck with Iran. And there's no easy way for them to undo this thing. Unfucking the thing that he fucked.

00:09:22:10 - 00:09:28:23
BRIAN
Yeah. Now he's stuck and temperature is going up. Gas prices are going up, and his approval is the lowest it's ever been.

00:09:28:23 - 00:09:50:14
GLENNIS
Yeah. I want to give you some numbers. Hit me. There's new reporting this morning about the cost of the war in Iran. The kind of, layman understanding of, like, the first 12 days was that it was costing, like, $1.2 billion per day. Did you see this? So they have new reporting that the US has spent 72 billion in the first 60 days of Iran war.

00:09:50:16 - 00:10:17:14
GLENNIS
And that is broken down by operations, which is like mobilization, combat troops, etc.. 15 billion weapons, 41 billion losses destroyed or damaged military assets, which the New York Times just sent me a personal notification in this recording that this actually much, much, much worse than the government is reporting of Iranian striking US military bases or assets. That's 12 billion subsidies, which they are saying is like paying for Israel's bombs.

00:10:17:14 - 00:10:46:08
GLENNIS
And it's like the Iron Dome, etc.. 3 billion. It's crazy. On top of that, at least 3400 civilians have been killed, in the US, Israeli airstrikes, including 376 children, more than 26,000 have been injured and more than 1 million people have been displaced, and over 14 US troops have been killed and more than 200 injured. For a war that no one wanted.

00:10:46:10 - 00:10:50:27
BRIAN
Yeah, that's more people than died. When we left off again, us and more us soldiers.

00:10:50:27 - 00:10:54:11
GLENNIS
Oh, and that locked up exit. Yeah. Yeah.

00:10:54:13 - 00:11:16:15
BRIAN
Right. Which was fucked up. And Biden got us out of war. Trump got us into a war for no reason. And now a bunch of soldiers are dead as a result. Like, I don't even I mean, people should also understand the scale of that. Spending in 60 days is the majority of what was cut from Snap that feeds hungry families domestically.

00:11:16:15 - 00:11:35:01
GLENNIS
I mean, it's so much worse than that thing about USAID. That nearly operating budget was $1.9 billion. And we know already to date that has killed killed because we're no longer giving vaccines and children are dying from preventable diseases, over 450,000 children.

00:11:35:03 - 00:11:35:29
BRIAN
It's horrendous.

00:11:36:05 - 00:11:37:05
GLENNIS
Horrendous.

00:11:37:07 - 00:11:48:12
BRIAN
Okay. There isn't a there is an analysis that shows that we could solve homelessness in the United States for less than half of the cost of what they've spent in 60 days. In Iran, we.

00:11:48:12 - 00:11:57:12
GLENNIS
Could provide free college education, we could provide free school lunches. But it's completely a choice.

00:11:57:14 - 00:12:07:12
BRIAN
So, okay, that's happened. I think that it's worth us talking about because it is going to have such a deep impact on the midterms. Other stuff happened while we were gone as well.

00:12:07:17 - 00:12:25:26
GLENNIS
Really quick. Some things that we didn't have a chance to talk about because we weren't recording, which is the political violence. The I don't even know what number assassination attempt. On Trump, which two things I will say about this immediately everyone was damning me, saying was it staged? I think the proof is in the pudding. It wasn't staged.

00:12:25:28 - 00:12:42:10
GLENNIS
But what is true is that the entire right media and the entire right wing media infrastructure within our all of the same talking point, which was this is why we need the ballroom for Trump security. Cut to there, suggesting an additional $1 billion for Donald Trump security.

00:12:42:12 - 00:12:47:22
BRIAN
No, for the ballroom. What? That billion dollars just for the ballroom?

00:12:47:22 - 00:12:49:02
GLENNIS
For security? For the ballroom.

00:12:49:03 - 00:12:50:06
BRIAN
Correct.

00:12:50:08 - 00:12:55:27
GLENNIS
And that would be taxpayer dollars. Correct. I will say the ballroom. Correct. Privately funded partly with like the Google site.

00:12:56:00 - 00:13:02:19
BRIAN
Me all the lie, all a sham or spending a billion taxpayer dollars on the ballroom.

00:13:02:21 - 00:13:04:20
GLENNIS
And that was breaking news to me.

00:13:04:21 - 00:13:11:22
BRIAN
Yeah, absurd. Is it an assassination attempt? I think it was a plot. I think that it was a foiled plot.

00:13:11:24 - 00:13:13:07
GLENNIS
What was the plot? Did you see the footage?

00:13:13:07 - 00:13:21:23
BRIAN
Yeah. But, like, I think that your life has to actually, at some point be in danger. Oh, yeah. For it to be an attempt. So I'm not crediting.

00:13:21:26 - 00:13:22:15
GLENNIS
It was a.

00:13:22:20 - 00:13:23:08
BRIAN
Concept.

00:13:23:14 - 00:13:24:02
GLENNIS
As a plan.

00:13:24:02 - 00:13:27:27
BRIAN
It was a concept of a plan. Okay. I'm like, no one died, right? Yeah.

00:13:27:27 - 00:13:28:28
GLENNIS
No. No one died.

00:13:29:01 - 00:13:30:21
BRIAN
It was like Stonewall.

00:13:30:23 - 00:13:31:04
GLENNIS
Hello?

00:13:31:05 - 00:13:41:05
BRIAN
Oh, okay. The other things that happened because so much, Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem both got fired while it was whatever pushed out while we were away.

00:13:41:05 - 00:13:43:04
GLENNIS
Yeah. The fall for Epstein.

00:13:43:06 - 00:13:44:13
BRIAN
Easy to forget.

00:13:44:15 - 00:13:49:03
GLENNIS
Well, what? You were also out of pocket deep into what.

00:13:49:03 - 00:13:52:14
BRIAN
Was literally completely fine. It was the first thing that I saw when I got back to my was.

00:13:52:14 - 00:13:57:21
GLENNIS
A bit bifurcation of Pam Bondi. Yeah. A christine's husband. Husband? Yeah, yeah.

00:13:57:24 - 00:14:35:21
BRIAN
Lots more came out about cash. Patel's drinking problem. And there are some other cabinet secretaries that I think are like generally under fire. We already mentioned, Jay Powell investigation got ramped down and now Trump will get his pick for fed chair. The other major story that was that was happening while we were away was reconciliation. And so my 32nd version for people is that if you think back to when Renee Goode was murdered, there was an outcry for no more money for Ice that Democrats should vote against every penny, any bill that included a penny more for Ice.

00:14:35:21 - 00:15:00:13
BRIAN
Yeah, I disagreed with the strategy at the time. This is exactly why that is. What happened. And they opposed any bill that included Ice funding in it. So DHS, which is the umbrella department over Ice, got pulled out of the bill. They passed the rest of the government funding. Then they pulled the ice portion out of that bill and passed the rest of DHS.

00:15:00:13 - 00:15:25:14
BRIAN
After the longest shut down in history, TSA and the coast Guard and others going without proper funding. Now Republicans are going to pass Ice funding. Yeah, but instead of the seven or so billion, it's now 70. It's a $70 billion bill that they're pushing through with just Republican votes. So Democrats now don't have the ability to block it.

00:15:25:16 - 00:15:33:29
BRIAN
It's more money. No restrictions on ice, like mask like banning masks or cameras or whatever.

00:15:34:01 - 00:15:39:27
GLENNIS
Right. Because those were two things we talked about. Right. Take your masks off. Right. And we're going to record you.

00:15:39:27 - 00:16:04:19
BRIAN
So now the end result here is no new restrictions on ice. Much more money for Ice. Yeah. And now they're jamming other stuff like the billion dollars for the ballroom into the same bill. Yes. And so this is reconciliation 2.0. This is their second reconciliation bill. There's going to be a reconciliation 3.0 as well, which will have other Republican crap in it that I don't think is likely to pass.

00:16:04:22 - 00:16:06:12
GLENNIS
But I feel like we got.

00:16:06:13 - 00:16:24:04
BRIAN
We did kind of got got and I and I understand it and it was why I had to take that. I had at the time, which is like it sounds obvious, like vote against any, any ice. I mean, like it sounds plain, plainly common sense to be like, no, no more, not a dollar more is fine for activists.

00:16:24:04 - 00:16:44:06
BRIAN
But the Senate should have been fucking smarter. Chuck Schumer should be smarter than that to say they they're getting the dollars that they want one way or the other. I would rather have us force our stuff into a bill right then, then leave, then just walk out of the room and see what happens after you're gone.

00:16:44:06 - 00:16:52:22
GLENNIS
Yeah, I want to leave people with some hope, though. I a nice, oath. You guys did a really great thing. You raise a ton of money for AGS. No.

00:16:52:24 - 00:17:08:19
BRIAN
We did okay. Yeah. So we have raised. Oof! I'll have to pull the number over $1 million for that Ice accountability fund, which is really exciting. And yeah, and that money goes to local organizing. So the grassroots groups on the ground that are.

00:17:08:21 - 00:17:09:28
GLENNIS
Fighting back, fighting.

00:17:10:00 - 00:17:26:04
BRIAN
And and protesting. Exactly. And it goes towards prosecuting Ice, which is now underway. There are the first cases being brought against Ice officers individually. And there are other sort of criminal cases developing. And we're helping fund the coordination of that work as well.

00:17:26:04 - 00:17:36:01
GLENNIS
Yeah. So even though we did got got at the federal level, yeah. At the state level, there's still good resistance work, both in terms of the elected officials we have prosecuting and then also on the ground.

00:17:36:05 - 00:17:37:00
BRIAN
Absolutely. Okay.

00:17:37:01 - 00:17:41:01
GLENNIS
Thank you. Yeah, I just want it's just so depressing.

00:17:41:01 - 00:18:00:28
BRIAN
Yes. What else happened while we were gone? Guys, please tell us DM me, DM glass. And we want to know what we're forgetting. And we can do another catch up commentary on our next stop. Okay, let's move on to some of the more ongoing news that is shifting our political landscape.

00:18:00:28 - 00:18:25:22
GLENNIS
I'm personally very grateful to be back because I, wanted to pick your brain on, two things that I think are both consequential. Well, one being, of course, the midterm elections and what it looks like, but then also the Clay Scotus ruling and the VRA, you were like online immediately, I think kind of really pulse checking and telling people to like get a grip a little bit, which I appreciate.

00:18:25:22 - 00:18:30:19
GLENNIS
Can you can we start there? Can we talk about that and then talk about the midterms?

00:18:30:21 - 00:18:46:24
BRIAN
Yeah, I, I boarded a flight from Seattle to New York, sat down in my seat and the Callais decision came out, which I have literally been watching. I get on Scotus blog every decision day expecting waiting for this one decision.

00:18:46:24 - 00:18:47:18
GLENNIS
You're like wheels.

00:18:47:18 - 00:18:57:02
BRIAN
Up one fucking day that I'm like, oh, I'm going to have terrible Wi-Fi. And yeah, I can't record any video. Yeah, I can't. So,

00:18:57:04 - 00:18:58:11
GLENNIS
I thought you did a good job, though. You guys.

00:18:58:15 - 00:19:22:29
BRIAN
I tried to thank you so much. So this decision, hopefully people have seen explainers either on my Instagram or in other places. I'm going to give a very simple high level on what the impacts are. And then we can really dive into like, what comes next. But this was a case brought by the state of Louisiana by Republicans trying to gerrymander black voters out of their districts.

00:19:23:02 - 00:19:49:18
BRIAN
Period. Currently, section two of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 requires states to keep racial considerations in their maps so that black voters, Latino voters, Asian American people can elect their own representatives and not be diluted among like non communities. Of of interest basically.

00:19:49:19 - 00:20:06:11
GLENNIS
And then there was a recall, requirement for that legislation because of historical disenfranchizing of black and brown communities, the United States of America, whether it be a poll tax or a literacy test or voter ID laws, etc..

00:20:06:12 - 00:20:41:22
BRIAN
Exactly. And the Supreme Court has been chipping away at the Voting Rights Act for a long time, and this is the latest step in that process. What they said was it's fine to discriminate against racial groups, as long as you claim that it is for Partizan gain, not because of their race, but because the current coalitions of the parties basically means the vast majority of people of color fall into the Democratic Party, and the and the majority of white people fall into the Republican Party currently.

00:20:41:29 - 00:20:50:07
BRIAN
And that means that you can very clearly make a Partizan case while completely basing your decisions on race.

00:20:50:10 - 00:20:58:21
GLENNIS
But it's also completely insane to be like, I'm going to I'm going to gerrymander this map so that Republicans win more.

00:20:58:24 - 00:20:59:10
BRIAN
Right?

00:20:59:12 - 00:21:00:16
GLENNIS
Where's our democracy?

00:21:00:18 - 00:21:27:03
BRIAN
Totally. And that was like a previous supreme Court decision that essentially said the courts have no business in policing Partizan gerrymandering at the federal level. Some states have bans like Florida has a state constitutional ban on Partizan gerrymandering. But then you need state supreme courts to be able to enforce that. And Republicans have taken over many state supreme courts as well.

00:21:27:06 - 00:21:46:09
BRIAN
Overall, what this does for the map is it means that Republicans can go gerrymander black voters out of the majority of the districts that Democrats hold in the South. For many states, it's too late to do that in 2026, because they either already held their primaries or all the filing deadlines have passed.

00:21:46:12 - 00:21:50:28
GLENNIS
Louisiana said. Hold my beer. We have to delay these elections.

00:21:50:29 - 00:22:14:04
BRIAN
Louisiana literally delayed their primary, although there is ongoing litigation about that. In order to gerrymander 1 or 2 Democrats out of their seats. It depends on whether they only go after the Shreveport district based district, or they also try and break up New Orleans so that New Orleans would no longer have one, like, intact congressional district, but would be broken up among amongst a bunch of rural.

00:22:14:12 - 00:22:41:17
BRIAN
And that's kind of the way that it's going to go in Tennessee and Alabama. And Mississippi and Georgia and South Carolina and Florida. And they're going to break up the cities that are so Democrat tick leaning and heavily black in some cases, to now be diluted amongst all the rural counties so that there are no Democrats sent to Congress from any of these states.

00:22:41:17 - 00:22:45:27
GLENNIS
I need the Supreme Court to shut the fuck up. Yeah, they need to just take a beat.

00:22:45:29 - 00:23:08:23
BRIAN
Yeah, we're getting a lot of bad shit from them right now. So the math, because you know that I'm all about them numbers. That's all that we care about. So what this really means is that Republicans could pick up 3 or 4 at most additional seats for the 2026 cycle. The good news for everyone listening in is that you're smart and you follow oath.

00:23:08:23 - 00:23:13:15
BRIAN
And we for the last year.

00:23:13:16 - 00:23:14:08
GLENNIS
I've been watching.

00:23:14:08 - 00:23:26:01
BRIAN
Have been planning on this exact scenario unfolding. This exact scenario was always baked into our plan. So while everyone else sorry to say it, but like Swing Left and Vote Save America and the sea and all these people are like.

00:23:26:03 - 00:23:26:20
GLENNIS
The DNC.

00:23:26:20 - 00:23:33:20
BRIAN
We just need to flip three more seats to take the house. You've always full time oath has been like, we need 12.

00:23:33:22 - 00:23:34:09
GLENNIS
Yeah.

00:23:34:09 - 00:23:53:14
BRIAN
And we've been targeting and funding races to aim for 12 years, not three. And we don't have to break down. Why? Why it's 12. But but we will eventually. It already was the plan was already there. So the goal right now is not we need a new plan. It's execute the plan exactly as it was written, which we're already doing.

00:23:53:16 - 00:24:01:28
BRIAN
Great. The second thing to be aware of is this really shifts the battle time horizon from, oh, what's going to happen before November 2nd, 2028.

00:24:02:03 - 00:24:02:18
GLENNIS


00:24:02:22 - 00:24:07:02
BRIAN
That we need to be making moves in 2026 to be setting up wins in 2028?

00:24:07:05 - 00:24:16:25
GLENNIS
I mean, I've tried not to be like I've been saying. I mean, the Democratic Party should have a ten year plan, not a two year plan, a two year plan, a two year plan for sure. So yes, but tell me more.

00:24:16:26 - 00:24:44:00
BRIAN
I mean, there's limited options for what Republicans can do post Callais in 2026, but we should expect them to pick up another ten seats between 26 and 28 conservatively, as a result of more race based gerrymandering. That means that Democrats have to have a plan to redistrict where we can in order to maintain a path to flipping the House in what is almost guaranteed to be a more difficult year for congressional races.

00:24:44:00 - 00:25:09:26
BRIAN
Yeah, that in 2026 is we feel great about our chances in 26, but we have to be thinking about these districts not as like one year things, but as ten year. Yeah, well, I mean through 2030 at least. And so that is why we need to now win state legislative races to secure a Democratic trifecta. That means control of both chambers and the governorship in much of the Midwest and the southwest.

00:25:09:26 - 00:25:10:22
GLENNIS
Yeah.

00:25:10:24 - 00:25:19:23
BRIAN
In order to pass new maps and neutralize the guaranteed Republican gerrymandering in the South.

00:25:19:25 - 00:25:26:26
GLENNIS
It's I kind of feel like, you know, when Meryl Streep and Big Little Lies screams at the table.

00:25:26:29 - 00:25:28:05
BRIAN
Yeah. Will you give us an impersonation.

00:25:28:05 - 00:25:31:16
GLENNIS
Of no, I can't, I have to rest my vocal cords.

00:25:31:18 - 00:25:34:07
BRIAN
She goes, she goes.

00:25:34:09 - 00:26:02:09
GLENNIS
To hospital, literally. It's like it's how I feel because it's just like, to what? And to what? And then also what communities are being most impacted by this. We know Republican state leaders, federal leaders aren't thinking about the poorest among us know or the social services that they need. We saw that with the big brutal bill. How they cut Snap and Medicaid by billions of dollars to give, you know, the top 1% more money.

00:26:02:09 - 00:26:14:08
GLENNIS
What are we doing? Like what are we doing as a party? How are we actually fighting? I don't say fighting against billionaires, but creating legislation that taxes them appropriately.

00:26:14:09 - 00:26:39:21
BRIAN
Right. The shift is taking place since Trump got reelected has been more in the Democratic Party than in the Republican Party. The Republican Party has continued on the exact same linear path of garbage, like of their descent into the gutter that they've been on for ten years. And that's just piling in on whatever Trump says. Yeah, at an elected official level, just what whatever.

00:26:39:21 - 00:26:41:22
GLENNIS
Trump signification of the Republican Party.

00:26:41:22 - 00:27:22:28
BRIAN
Whereas the Democratic Party has actually undergone, I think, a really radical change in the last year and a half that's taking place, both. Yeah, center left and far left, across ideological lines where there was trepidation before or sort of principled stances. You now find knife fighters and brawlers, across the party. And so when Republicans say, okay, we're going to go gerrymander every black person in the South, out of the power of their vote, Democrats are no longer just, like, clutching our pearls and saying, you can't do that.

00:27:22:28 - 00:28:04:07
BRIAN
That's so bad. Oh my God, guys, please. No, don't do that. They're activated. We're now saying, okay, we're going to gerrymander Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Minnesota. Yeah, new York, Washington, Oregon, Maryland, Illinois. Okay, all of those states can get new maps for 2028. Yeah. And Democrats are moving quickly to to do the same thing. And I think that that's what has to happen, because when you have one party that loves to take hostages and one party that's unwilling to to let any hostage die, so to speak, figuratively.

00:28:04:07 - 00:28:05:17
GLENNIS
Sure.

00:28:05:20 - 00:28:10:18
BRIAN
It gives all the power to to that one party that's willing to take the hostage. And so now we're saying.

00:28:10:20 - 00:28:11:10
GLENNIS
Now shoot.

00:28:11:10 - 00:28:12:02
BRIAN
Them.

00:28:12:04 - 00:28:29:15
GLENNIS
Okay, I will I will say I do. I think there's a lot of do it, rhetoric that is normalizing political violence to me. No, not just you, everyone. We all say it's a metaphor. I know it's a metaphor. Okay, so you're feeling optimistic for the midterms?

00:28:29:17 - 00:28:33:10
BRIAN
I'm feeling fired the fuck up. Okay, that's for sure.

00:28:33:12 - 00:28:34:12
GLENNIS
Me, too.

00:28:34:15 - 00:28:59:15
BRIAN
I'm feeling angry about the Callais decision. Yeah, at the end of the day, it's voters who lose. It's all of us who lose. But the way out is through. And there is no sort of high road case against gerrymandering as a whole. If that's your position, you literally need to go study what happened in the last 20 years and then come back and we can have a real conversation about it.

00:28:59:17 - 00:29:00:29
BRIAN
Do you know who we should have on to debate it?

00:29:01:05 - 00:29:02:00
GLENNIS
Who?

00:29:02:03 - 00:29:02:27
BRIAN
Keith Edwards.

00:29:03:02 - 00:29:03:26
GLENNIS


00:29:03:28 - 00:29:07:12
BRIAN
Who? I don't know where he sits now, but the last time he and I spoke.

00:29:07:17 - 00:29:08:00
GLENNIS
We love you.

00:29:08:00 - 00:29:20:03
BRIAN
Keith adamantly disagree on this, where he's like, no gerrymandering ever. And I think that that's that's true. I think that that was very cute in 2015.

00:29:20:04 - 00:29:22:17
GLENNIS
The 2012 has left the station.

00:29:22:17 - 00:29:24:02
BRIAN
And it's not anymore.

00:29:24:04 - 00:29:33:05
GLENNIS
Yeah, I'm with you. The train is at the station. We have to do it. We have to do to protect again the poorest among us and the people who most need government to help.

00:29:33:05 - 00:29:45:27
BRIAN
The solution has to come federally that everyone needs to play by the same rules for me, Democrats cannot hold ourselves to a different standard and play by a different set of rules than Republicans are gonna play.

00:29:45:27 - 00:29:48:18
GLENNIS
We're aligned. Okay, Keith.

00:29:48:20 - 00:29:53:06
BRIAN
This is an official challenge. Join us and, make your case.

00:29:53:09 - 00:30:04:20
GLENNIS
We have a lot to talk about this season, and it's what you and I love the most, election season. So that's our goal for the next. What is it, six months? When is the election?

00:30:04:23 - 00:30:06:16
BRIAN
November 3rd.

00:30:06:18 - 00:30:13:15
GLENNIS
Third. And so it's early in the month. You know, my birthday is November 7th, so it's always going to be party. No, it's always we're.

00:30:13:16 - 00:30:13:22
BRIAN
Gonna be.

00:30:13:22 - 00:30:18:28
GLENNIS
Partying. Dicey. How things go. Yeah.

00:30:19:00 - 00:30:20:14
BRIAN
I want to do this year.

00:30:20:16 - 00:30:25:01
GLENNIS
I'm not going to name and night off mike. I'll be 39. Oh.

00:30:25:01 - 00:30:25:07
BRIAN
Only got.

00:30:25:07 - 00:30:29:24
GLENNIS
Work. I know, I love it. I want to get Botox. I've had it. Yeah. It's time.

00:30:29:27 - 00:30:31:13
BRIAN
You don't need that. We look the same age.

00:30:31:13 - 00:30:32:16
GLENNIS
No, I need it.

00:30:32:19 - 00:30:35:11
BRIAN
For number one. We do? No, we do.

00:30:35:13 - 00:30:57:24
GLENNIS
Don't you tell me how we do. Don't gaslight me. Okay. Who do you guys think looks fucking weird? Hey, I was also a lifeguard for, like, eight years, which does not help your skin. Okay, so thank you, Brian, for all that information. It's a lot, but I. You know, what does it all save for two midterms in the last 40 years?

00:30:57:24 - 00:31:13:24
GLENNIS
Like the party not in power has gained seats. So I'm going to trust history. And I know that we have some maps we have to contend with. But stick with us for the rest of the season. And we're going to hold your hand and walk you through this insane midterm season.

00:31:13:24 - 00:31:26:23
BRIAN
Yeah, we're in the thick of primaries right now. They're really just kicking off. That's why we're restarting season three now. We just had Ohio and Indiana. There were no major surprises there.

00:31:26:25 - 00:31:35:02
GLENNIS
I was kind of surprised by Indiana because it was like a referendum on like, do you fully support Trump? Trump went there to campaign for some of the.

00:31:35:04 - 00:31:45:14
BRIAN
Yeah, people. They spent almost $15 million on the legislative races, which is in the state of Indiana, a ton of money.

00:31:45:17 - 00:31:49:18
GLENNIS
There's a ton of money anywhere. And the fact that it's happening for state led races.

00:31:49:18 - 00:31:50:08
BRIAN
Yeah.

00:31:50:11 - 00:31:51:03
GLENNIS
Crazy.

00:31:51:10 - 00:31:56:15
BRIAN
And it was purely retribution. Indiana decided not to gerrymander.

00:31:56:15 - 00:31:57:06
GLENNIS
I know.

00:31:57:06 - 00:32:22:27
BRIAN
And Trump won revenge out of it. My whole thing is it really just cements that the Republican Party has no moral center anymore. It is just a party of a cult of personality, like it is a party that worships Donald Trump and Trump is going away.

00:32:22:29 - 00:32:27:28
GLENNIS
So whether by, by death or.

00:32:28:00 - 00:32:28:20
BRIAN
Or leaving or.

00:32:28:20 - 00:32:29:04
GLENNIS
Leaving.

00:32:29:04 - 00:32:59:12
BRIAN
Or, or term limits, he is going away. Yeah. And what will the Republican Party have left? I really don't think that it's until after he exits stage left that there will be a true reckoning. Yeah. For the fact that they've pushed every ideological conservative. Yeah. Out of the party. The defining sort of feature for the last 40 years and have replaced them with.

00:32:59:15 - 00:33:03:27
BRIAN
So it's. Yeah. And that there will be a price to pay for.

00:33:03:27 - 00:33:07:00
GLENNIS
That for sure, because people's lives aren't getting any better. Right.

00:33:07:03 - 00:33:33:12
BRIAN
We have a lot of primaries coming up. The things that we're going to be talking about most are what turnout says about the enthusiasm gap between Democrats or Republicans, specific voting blocs that are going to give us signals for what is going to happen in November, like Latino voters. So watching for primaries in places like Arizona, what the competitive House map says about the direction of the Democratic Party.

00:33:33:12 - 00:33:35:25
BRIAN
So there's a lot of progressives versus.

00:33:35:28 - 00:33:40:06
GLENNIS
Like the grand Latinas versus the right. Mallory McMorris.

00:33:40:10 - 00:33:43:16
BRIAN
Yeah, I mean, not directly because they're in different states, but like, you.

00:33:43:16 - 00:33:44:15
GLENNIS
Know, but I'm like, you.

00:33:44:15 - 00:33:46:08
BRIAN
Know, those those those profiles.

00:33:46:08 - 00:33:50:17
GLENNIS
That's okay. So, okay, like grand partner and General Janet Mills.

00:33:50:17 - 00:33:50:29
BRIAN
Yeah. Yeah.

00:33:51:00 - 00:33:52:08
GLENNIS
The Susan Collins pullout.

00:33:52:10 - 00:33:53:21
BRIAN
No that's Republican.

00:33:53:23 - 00:34:01:23
GLENNIS
Oh my gosh. And we're cooking. Yeah. We're cooking with gas over here. Well gas is so expensive I don't I.

00:34:01:23 - 00:34:03:22
BRIAN
Can't we're using ethanol to.

00:34:03:25 - 00:34:18:10
GLENNIS
Fuel my brain. Right. So like, grand flattener like Tesla. No, wait. Grab that partner. And then on an eBay, Susan Collins is a Republican and then grand partner. And then what's your name? Janet Mills. But she she's not running.

00:34:18:18 - 00:34:19:04
BRIAN
She dropped out.

00:34:19:05 - 00:34:19:24
GLENNIS
She dropped out.

00:34:19:24 - 00:34:37:00
BRIAN
Right. So stories like that are going to be big news. And then the young versus old thing is also a big storyline coming up in a bunch of primaries where you have like old incumbents that have been in Congress since the printing press against young whippersnappers who have raised a bunch of money to get them out of here.

00:34:37:01 - 00:34:44:01
GLENNIS
Or it's like Sherrod Brown, who lost his election and is still is coming back to run. And it's like.

00:34:44:02 - 00:34:47:25
BRIAN
Well, he just won his primary, but there was really no competitor there.

00:34:47:25 - 00:34:58:22
GLENNIS
Okay. Yeah, I mean, that to me is kind of historic that in the entire state of Ohio, we couldn't find one other candidate that was better than the Republicans already are. The who's better than the Democrats? We already lost.

00:34:58:24 - 00:35:04:09
BRIAN
Thanks, Chuck Schumer. That was all Chuck Schumer. That's like a that's a straight up.

00:35:04:11 - 00:35:25:05
GLENNIS
It's it's offensive I think. Yeah. Imagine giving getting fired from your job. Yeah by the people. And then we're like you know what. There's no one else in this entire state of Ohio who we think can do this. We're going to give you your job again, even though the people already voted you out. Yeah. Sorry, sorry.

00:35:25:05 - 00:35:32:19
BRIAN
Not same with well, no different. But Roy Cooper is a repeat candidate in North Carolina. Mary Pothole, in Alaska.

00:35:32:20 - 00:35:34:15
GLENNIS
I have different feelings about Roy Cooper.

00:35:34:20 - 00:35:36:03
BRIAN
There's a bunch of,

00:35:36:05 - 00:35:41:27
GLENNIS
He was a governor who now he's running for Senate. Sherrod Brown was a senator who lost his race, is running for Senate again very recently.

00:35:42:03 - 00:36:01:00
BRIAN
We will have a lot to keep you guys up to date on throughout primary season and headed into November. I know that people are freaking the f out, and it feels like the midterms are forever away, but it's actually all going to happen super quick and we'll be here all throughout to break it down for you. We will.

00:36:01:02 - 00:36:09:01
BRIAN
It's going to be a wild ride, but I'm glad that we will have this forum once again to check the vibes forum.

00:36:09:03 - 00:36:14:06
GLENNIS
Okay, Brian, see you later.

00:36:14:09 - 00:36:22:10
BRIAN
See you guys next week. Who?

00:36:22:13 - 00:36:22:25
BRIAN
Do.